Highlights: Budget 2015
FISCAL DEFICIT
- Fiscal deficit seen at 3.9 percent of GDP in 2015/16
- Will meet the challenging fiscal target of 4.1 percent of GDP
- Remain committed to meeting medium term fiscal deficit target of 3 percent of GDP
- Current account deficit below 1.3 percent of GDP
- Jaitley says have to keep fiscal discipline in mind despite need for higher investment
GROWTH
- GDP growth seen at between 8 percent and 8.5 percent y/y
- Nominal economic growth seen between 11 and 12 percent
- Aiming double digit growth rate, achievable soon
INFLATION
- Expects consumer inflation to remain close to 5 percent by March, opening room for more monetary policy easing
- Monetary policy framework agreement with the RBI clearly states objective of keeping inflation below 6 percent
- “One of the achievements of my government has been to conquer inflation. This decline in my view represents a structural shift.”
REVENUES
- Revenue deficit seen at 2.8 percent of GDP
- Non tax revenue seen at 2.21 trillion rupees
- Agricultural incomes are under stress
- Net receipts under market stabilisation scheme estimated at 200 billion rupees
DISINVESTMENT
- Government targets 410 billion rupees ($6.7 billion) from stake sales in companies in 2015/16
- Total stake sale in 2015/16 seen at 695 billion rupees
- Sets stake sale target for 2016/17 at 550 billion rupees
- Revises down stake sale target for 2014/15 to 313.5 billion rupees
MARKET REFORMS
- Propose to merge commodities regulator with SEBI
- To bring a new bankruptcy code
- Jaitley says will move to amend the RBI act this year, and provide for a monetary policy committee
- To set up public debt management agency
- Proposes to introduce a public contract resolution of disputes bill
- To establish an autonomous bank board bureau to improve management of public sector banks
POLICY REFORMS
- To enact a comprehensive new law on black money
- Propose to create a universal social security system for all Indians
- To launch a national skills mission soon to enhance employability of rural youth
- To raise visa-on-arrival facility to 150 countries from 43
- Allocates 346.99 billion rupees for rural employment guarantee scheme
- Raises threshold for application of transfer pricing rules to 200 million rupees from current 50 million rupees
BORROWING
- Gross market borrowing seen at 6 trillion rupees
- Net market borrowing seen at 4.56 trillion rupees
- GENERAL ANTI-AVOIDANCE RULES (GAAR)
- Government defers rollout of anti-tax avoidance rules GAAR by two years
- GAAR to apply prospectively from April 1, 2017
- Retrospective tax provisions will be avoided
TAXATION
- To abolish wealth tax
- Replaces wealth tax with additional 2 pct surcharge on super rich
- Proposes to cut to 25 percent corporate tax over next four years
- Corporate tax of 30 percent is uncompetitive
- Net gain from tax proposals seen at 150.68 billion rupees
- Jaitley proposes modification of permanent establishment norms so that the mere presence of a fund manager in India would not constitute a permanent establishment of the offshore fund, resulting in adverse tax consequences.
- Proposes to rationalise capital gains tax regime for real estate investment trusts
- Extends withholding tax concession on foreign debt purchases by two years
- Expects to implement goods and services tax by April 2016
- To reduce custom duty on 22 items
- Basic custom duty on commercial vehicle doubled to 20 percent
- Proposes to increase service tax rate and education cess to 14 percent from 12.36 percent
- Plans to introduce direct tax regime that is internationally competitive on rates without exemptions
- Exemptions for individual tax payers to continue
- To enact tough penalties for tax evasion in new bill
- Tax dept to clarify indirect transfer of assets and dividend paid by foreign firms
PERSONAL INCOME TAX
- No revision of income tax brackets
- Limit of deduction of health insurance premium increased to 25,000 rupees from 15,000 rupees; limit increased to 30,000 rupees from 20,000 rupees for the elderly
- People aged above 80 and not covered by health insurance to be allowed deduction of 30,000 rupees for medical expenses
- Additional deduction of 25,000 rupees for the disabled
- Limit on deduction for contributions to pension fund and new pension scheme increased to 150,000 rupees from 100,000 rupees
- Additional deduction of 50,000 rupees for contribution to new pension scheme under section 80CCD
- Monthly transport allowance exemption doubled to 1,600 rupees
IMPORT TAX
- Import tax on iron and steel increased to 15 percent from 10 percent
- Import tax on metallurgical coke increased to 5 percent from 2.5 percent
INFRASTRUCTURE
- Investment in infrastructure will go up by 700 bln rupees in 2015/16 over last year
- Plans to set up national investment infrastructure fund
- Proposes tax-free infrastructure bonds for projects in roads, rail and irrigation projects
- Proposes 5 “ultra mega” power projects for 4,000 MW each
- Second unit of Kudankulam nuclear power station to be commissioned
- Will need to build additional 100,000 km of road
- Ports in public sector will be encouraged to corporatise under Companies Act
EXPENDITURE
- Plan expenditure estimated at about 4.65 trillion rupees
- Non-plan expenditure seen at about 13.12 trillion rupees
- Allocates 2.46 trillion rupees for defence spending
- Allocates 331.5 billion rupees for health sector
- If revenue improves, hope to raise budgeted allocations for rural job scheme by 50 billion rupees
INVESTMENT
- Government to provide 79.4 billion rupees capital infusion to state-run banks
- Propose to do away with different types of foreign investment caps and replace them with composite caps
- To allow foreign investment in alternative investment funds
- Public investment needed to catalyse investment
GOLD
- To launch gold deposit accounts and sovereign bond
- Import duty stays at 10 percent; disappoints jewellers
- To work on Indian-made gold coin to cut imports
CIGARETTES
- Raises excise duty on cigarettes by 25 percent for cigarettes of length not exceeding 65 mm
- Raises excise duty by 15 percent for cigarettes of other lengths
SUBSIDIES
- Food subsidy seen at 1.24 trillion rupees
- Fertilizer subsidy seen at 729.69 billion rupees
- Fuel subsidy seen at 300 billion rupees
- Major subsidies estimated at 2.27 trillion rupees
- We are committed to subsidy rationalization based on cutting leakages